January Primary Lead Smelters Underwent Concentrated Maintenance, Production Declined More Than Expected [SMM Analysis]

         SMM January 25 News: In January 2025, the national primary lead production saw a further decline, down 11.4% MoM and 1.13% YoY.          It is understood that the production cuts by primary lead smelters in January exceeded the forecast in the previous report, mainly due to unexpected maintenance or sudden equipment failures in some medium and large enterprises. Specifically, smelters in Jiangxi, Yunnan, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia underwent maintenance, smelters in Guangdong extended their maintenance periods, and smelters in Qinghai experienced unexpected equipment failures, resulting in significant production reductions. Additionally, from December-January, lead prices gradually shifted downward, with SHFE lead falling below the 17,000 yuan mark at the end of December and remaining below this level throughout January. Narrowing profits for smelters, combined with lower-than-expected pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling by downstream enterprises, prompted some smelters to proactively cut production to mitigate the risk of lead ingot inventory buildup during the holiday period.          Looking ahead to February, as February has only 28 days (a natural month), the fewest days in the year, lead smelters are expected to naturally reduce production due to fewer production days. Meanwhile, maintenance at smelters in Yunnan, Hunan, and Henan will continue into February, with additional smelters scheduled for maintenance during the month, which is expected to drag down February's primary lead production further, with a projected decline of around 3 percentage points.